Intertemporal solvency and indexed debt: evidence from Brazil, 1976–1991
研究巴西国内政府债务、金融指数化、通货膨胀与跨期偿付能力的关系，发现1986–1991年间实际指数化下降紧随政府支出增加，构成隐性违约，且与外国因素无关。
This paper examines domestically held government debt, financial indexation, inflation, and intertemporal solvency in Brazil. An error-correction model is used to examine the temporal causality of expenditures, taxation and real indexation. Evidence shows that, for the 1986–1991 period, reductions in real indexation followed increases in government spending. Such reductions, while generally associated with anti-inflation plans, served as implicit defaults. The policy was largely unrelated to foreign factors. Of course, such a policy cannot be sustained in the long run. Accordingly, Brazil recently ended backward looking financial indexation.