Econometric Estimation of Foresight: Tax Policy and Investment in the United States
提出一种衡量经济主体前瞻性的方法，通过比较不同预测期的模型误差来估计企业对税收政策的预知程度，发现当前投资主要反映已有信息，对未颁布的政策变化缺乏前瞻性。
We develop a method for measuring the foresight agents have. We first dichotomize an agent's information at current date t into knowledge up to date t + f and expectations after t + f. We then form a residual-based test statistic that allows us to compare prediction errors for econometric models based on different values of f. We illustrate the method, examining investment around tax reforms to measure the foresight firms have about tax policy. In this illustration, current investment appears to reflect currently available information but little foresight other than foresight of enacted policy changes. © 2001 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology