Catastrophic Risk and Credit Markets
构建模型分析巨灾风险对房地产融资和价格的影响，发现保险市场缺陷会限制易受灾房产的信贷供给。基于加州1990年代数据，地震风险使商业地产银行贷款减少22%，对非裔美国人社区影响更严重。
ABSTRACT We provide a model of the effects of catastrophic risk on real estate financing and prices and demonstrate that insurance market imperfections can restrict the supply of credit for catastrophe‐susceptible properties. Using unique micro‐level data, we find that earthquake risk decreased commercial real estate bank loan provision by 22% in California properties in the 1990s, with more severe effects in African–American neighborhoods. We show that the 1994 Northridge earthquake had only a short‐term disruptive effect. Our basic findings are confirmed for hurricane risk, and our model and empirical work have implications for terrorism and political perils.