The (Un)Importance of Forward-Looking Behavior in Price Specifications
检验了泰勒式价格设定模型中未来价格预期的实证重要性，发现其对解释价格和通胀行为并不重要，但纯后顾型通胀模型的动态与前瞻型模型有显著差异。
The seminal work of Phelps, Taylor, and Cairo developed forwardlooking models of price determination that imparted inertia to the price leveh These models incorporate expectations of future prices and excess demand by imposing constraints (typically lag-lead symmetry constrainls) that force future variables to enter the specification.In this paper, I test the empirical significance of future prices-in specifications like those of Taylor.I find that expectations of future prices are empirically unimportant in explaining price and inflation behavior.However, the dynamics of a model_that includes a purely backwardlooking inflation specification differ' significantly-and not altogether pleasingly-from those with a forward-looking specification.