Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters
发现家庭预期并非理性，但可用一个模型解释：家庭从新闻中获取专业预测者的观点，而专业预测者可能是理性的。模型估计表明人们偶尔关注新闻，导致预期粘性，影响宏观经济。
Economists have long emphasized the importance of expectations in determining macroeconomic outcomes. Yet there has been almost no recent effort to model actual empirical expectations data; instead, macroeconomists usually simply assume that expectations are "rational." This paper shows that while empirical household expectations are not rational in the usual sense, expectational dynamics are well captured by a model in which households' views derive from news reports of the views of professional forecasters, which in turn may be rational. The model's estimates imply that people only occasionally pay attention to news reports; this inattention generates "stickyness" in aggregate expectations, with important macroeconomic consequences.