A Multivariate Threshold Varying Conditional Correlations Model
提出一个多元阈值变条件相关模型，将动态条件相关模型扩展到阈值框架，保留单变量阈值GARCH的解释力，并允许动态条件相关，用于捕捉金融时间序列中的非对称均值和方差行为。
In this article, a multivariate threshold varying conditional correlation (TVCC) model is proposed. The model extends the idea of Engle (2002 Engle , R. F. ( 2002 ). Dynamic conditional correlation: a simple class of multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models . Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 20 ( 3 ): 339 – 350 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Tse and Tsui (2002 Tse , Y. K. , Tsui , A. K. C. ( 2002 ). A multivariate GARCH model with time-varying correlations . Journal of Business and Economic Statistics , July 2002 , 20 ( 3 ): 351 – 362 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) to a threshold framework. This model retains the interpretation of the univariate threshold GARCH model and allows for dynamic conditional correlations. Techniques of model identification, estimation, and model checking are developed. Some simulation results are reported on the finite sample distribution of the maximum likelihood estimate of the TVCC model. Real examples demonstrate the asymmetric behavior of the mean and the variance in financial time series and the ability of the TVCC model to capture these phenomena.