Fiscal Stimulus in a Monetary Union: Evidence from US Regions
利用军事采购的历史数据，估计政府支出对产出的影响，发现开放经济相对乘数约为1.5，表明需求冲击对产出有显著影响。
We use rich historical data on military procurement to estimate the effects of government spending. We exploit regional variation in military buildups to estimate an “open economy relative multiplier” of approximately 1.5. We develop a framework for interpreting this estimate and relating it to estimates of the standard closed economy aggregate multiplier. The latter is highly sensitive to how strongly aggregate monetary and tax policy “leans against the wind.” Our open economy relative multiplier “differences out” these effects because monetary and tax policies are uniform across the nation. Our evidence indicates that demand shocks can have large effects on output.