European monetary arrangements: Implications for the dollar, exchange rate variability and credibility
利用欧洲汇率机制（ERM）的历史经验，分析汇率波动、货币政策传导、美元在ERM危机中的作用以及成员国的可信度，发现德国高利率和美元疲软是1992年9月危机的重要成因。
Abstract This paper uses the recent history of the ERM to gain insights into what might happen to exchange rates on the road to EMU. to do this, the paper examines the variability of exchange rates, the transmission of monetary policy between countries, the role of the dollar in ERM exchange rate crises, and ERM members' credibility as measured by the realignment probabilities prior to the September 1992 crisis. We identify two factors that might have contributed to the September 1992 crisis: high German interest rates and weakness of the US dollar. We find that behaviour of exchange rates has changed over time and differs between ERM and non‐ERM currencies. We also demonstrate that changes in German short‐term interest rates influence interest rates in other ERM countries and vice versa.