风险与政策分析的决策过程视角

A Decision-Process Perspective on Risk and Policy Analysis

Management Science · 1984
被引 28
人大 A+FT50UTD24ABS 4*

中文导读

从决策过程视角分析风险分析与政策分析在危险设施选址中的作用,以加州液化天然气设施选址为例,说明多方顺序决策过程及风险估计差异如何加剧利益相关者冲突,并探讨补偿机制在谈判中的价值。

Abstract

Risk analysis and policy analysis can play important roles in facilitating the siting of potentially hazardous facilities if one recognizes the descriptive features of the decision process. The case of siting a liquified natural gas (LNG) facility in California illustrates the multi-party sequential nature of the process and the role that widely differing risk estimates play in fueling conflicts between stakeholders. Risk analysis does have a useful function in clarifying the nature of the potential losses, particularly if rules of evidence are instituted for evaluating different studies. Policy analysis can facilitate the negotiation process by the use of compensation to redistribute gains and losses between the different parties. Examples from case studies are presented to illustrate the challenges for risk analysis and policy analysis in the siting process.

风险分析政策分析决策过程设施选址