Prospecting for Economic Returns to Research: Adding Informational Value at the Market Fringe
构建了一种方法，通过贝叶斯更新来估计公共研究在私人市场边缘项目中的信息价值，并以科罗拉多州增值农业研究为例展示其应用。
Abstract. Private markets constantly assess project investment opportunities across a spectrum of such possibilities. The market's perspective on the boundary of viable projects, however, may be more limited than socially optimal due to informational constraints. In the case of economic development projects in particular, this boundary could be extended by public researchers. This paper constructs a method to estimate the private and social value-added of such research, providing a new means to understand and assess the public/private sector interface. The framework uses agents’ evolving subjective perceptions through Bayesian updating to value research information, along with methods to estimate functional forms and relative optima. Two case studies of regional development research on value-added agriculture in Colorado highlight the utility of the approach.