Forecasting and Hedging: An Illustration of Risk Reduction in the Hog Industry
评估了六种季度价格预测方法（计量经济、ARIMA、专家、朴素及两种组合）结合选择性套期保值策略，帮助生猪生产者和初加工商降低价格波动风险。结果显示，与现货销售相比，价格有小幅改善，且多数方法显著降低了短期风险暴露。
Abstract Hog producers and first handlers can reduce the risk of unfavorable price fluctuations by combining the information from forecasting models with a selective hedging strategy. Six quarterly price‐forecasting approaches (econometric, ARIMA, expert, naive, and two composites) were evaluated over the 1976–82 period using a simple yet pragmatic hedging decision rule. The results indicate that relatively modest improvements in prices received by producers or paid by first‐handlers relative to cash marketing were possible. Statistically significant reductions in short‐term risk exposure were achieved by both groups through most of the approaches evaluated.