Time and Punishment: An Intertemporal Model of Crime
构建了一个跨期模型，分析犯罪率如何影响预期被抓获时间，并比较提高抓捕概率与加重惩罚对威慑犯罪的效果，发现前者更有效。
If an increase in the rate at which a criminal commits crimes lowers the expected time until detection, the income from crime (net of expected fines) must be dis counted at a rate that varies with the crime rate. This paper models the criminal's choice of the optimal crime rate under such conditions. It is shown that, irrespective of the criminal's attitude toward risk, an increase in the probability of detection is more likely to deter crime than a comparable increase in penalties. Other implications of the model for the optimal enforcement of laws are also explored. Copyright 1988 by University of Chicago Press.