Longitudinal Analysis of Strike Activity
分析罢工活动的时间变化和合同特征对争议概率的影响，发现罢工概率在夏秋季更高，受谈判间隔和上次罢工结果影响。
This paper presents evidence on two aspects of strike activity contract characteristics on dispute probabilities; and the variation in strike activity over time within bargaining pairs. Cross-sectional and longitudinal estimation techniques show that strike probabilities are higher in summer and fall than winter and spring. Strike probabilities are also increased by increasing the length of time between nego- tiations, and reduced in limited wage reopening negotiations. Finally, strike probabilities are significantly affected by lagged strike out- comes. Relative to a peaceful settlement of the previous contract, strike probabilities are lO percentage points higher following a strike of two weeks or less, and 5 to ? percentage points lower following a strike of longer than two weeks.