Interest Rates and the Subjective Probability Distribution of Inflation Forecasts
利用ASA-NBER调查数据，研究通胀预测主观概率分布的前四阶矩对利率的影响。发现通胀不确定性（方差）不显著，但偏度和峰度显著影响利率，反映未来通胀的风险水平。
The interst rate effects of the first four moments of the subjective probability distribution of inflation forecasts from the ASA-NBER survey are examined over the period 1968:4-1985:4. Using Tre asury bill yields as the nominal rate variable in the context of a re duced form Fisher equation, the authors find that inflation uncertain ty, as measured by the average variance of the probability distributi ons of inflation forecasts, to be insignificant. However, the average skewness and kurtosis variables which result from these probability distributions do significantly affect interest rates. They interpret these effects as accounting for the level of risk or uncertainty abou t future inflation. Copyright 1988 by Ohio State University Press.