Complex economic dynamics: Obvious in history, generic in theory, elusive in data
通过新古典增长理论的适应性版本，展示非线性动态模型如何模拟经济数据的定性特征，并讨论对计量方法中结构估计和定性推断的启示。
SUMMARY The capacity of nonlinear dynamic models to mimic qualitative features of economic data is illustrated with an adaptive version of the neoclassical growth theory. Implications for econometric methodology are discussed, emphasizing structural estimation and qualitative inference.