A Scott-Type Regression Test of the Dividend Ratio Model
对股票市场的有效市场模型（坎贝尔和希勒的股息比率模型）进行回归检验，通过改进方法检验斜率系数是否为1，发现美国1901-1987年数据强烈拒绝该模型，支持股价应波动更小的替代观点。
Tests of a representation of the efficient markets model (the dividend-rtaio model of Campbell and Shiller (1988a)) of the stock market can be made by regressing (transformed) ex-post values on (transformed) actual values and testing whether the slope coefficient is one. Such tests are run here with some improvements. The results of the tests are that the efficient markets model is strongly rejected with U.S. data 1901-1987 in favor of an alternative that stock prices should have been much less volatile. Copyright 1990 by MIT Press.