Estimating Sovereign Default Risk
用贝叶斯方法估计希腊和意大利在欧元区成立后的主权违约概率，构建包含财政政策、违约风险和财政极限的模型，发现希腊在给定债务水平下违约概率更低，但意大利政府更愿意偿债。
This paper uses Bayesian methods to estimate the sovereign default probability for Greece and Italy in the post-EMU period. We build a real business cycle model that allows for interactions among fiscal policy instruments, sovereign default risk, and a “fiscal limit,” which measures the maximum level of debt the government is willing to finance. We estimate the full nonlinear model using likelihood inference methods. Although we find that Greece historically had a lower default probability than Italy for a given debt level, our estimates suggest that the Italian government is more willing to service debt than the Greek government.