Modelling pig sector dynamic adjustment to livestock epidemics with stochastic-duration trade disruptions
用随机动态规划模型模拟芬兰猪产业在口蹄疫疫情下，出口中断时长不确定时的市场影响，发现长期禁运风险会大幅增加疫情损失和生产调整的经济收益。
We use a stochastic dynamic programming model to simulate the market implications of alternative foot and mouth disease scenarios in the Finnish pig sector. The model considers the dynamics of animal stock adjustment and price movements when the duration of export disruptions is unknown. Explicit treatment of these issues is crucial in the economic analysis of livestock epidemics, especially if there is a risk of a prolonged export ban. Results suggest that the risk of a prolonged ban increases disease losses considerably. It also increases economic benefits from production adjustments.