ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES LEARNING AND NONLINEARITIES IN MACROECONOMICS
综述了宏观经济中适应性学习的文献，重点分析两期世代交叠模型下学习过程导致的长期周期与混沌，并讨论高货币增长率的潜在不稳定效应以及系统性预测误差的持续性问题。
Abstract The paper reviews the literature on adaptive learning in macroeconomic settings where the formation of expectations is particularly relevant. Special attention will be given to simple two‐period overlapping generations models with a unique fixed point perfect foresight equilibrium; in this kind of scenario, eventual long‐term periodic and a‐periodic cycles are exclusively the result of the process of learning. The outcome that high rates of money growth have a potentially destabilizing effect generating periodic fluctuations and chaos is emphasized. The persistence of systematic forecast errors in a scenario where agents are supposed to act rationally is relevant in this context and it will be thoroughly discussed resorting to the notions of self‐fulfilling mistakes, consistent expectations equilibria and beliefs equilibria.