THE APPLICABILITY OF THE TRADITIONAL THEORY OF ECONOMIC POLICY
综述了传统经济政策理论在制定最优政策时面临的困难，特别是政策制定者目标函数未知的问题，并讨论了理性预期、卢卡斯批判和政策中性等概念，以及政治因素和满意决策的可能性。
Abstract. The traditional theory of economic policy requires targets, instruments, an empirical economic model, and a social welfare or criterion function to be specified in order to derive the optimal economic policy. Empirical studies of reaction functions suggest that economic policy is carried out in some systematic manner, subject to interference from political factors. This survey addresses the problems of specifying, estimating and applying an economic model when economic policy is following a path specified by a reaction function. Attention is paid to rational expectations, the Lucas’critique, and the policy neutrality proposition. Lack of knowledge of the policy maker's objective function poses the most serious difficulty when applying the theory of economic policy. Various methods of determining this function are reviewed, and the possibility that policy makers might be satisficing is discussed. The role played by political factors is considered in the light of the public choice literature.