Aggregate Savings and External Imbalances in China
构建了一个统一框架，解释中国高储蓄率和外部失衡的结构性原因，包括企业、政府和家庭部门的储蓄激励政策、限制投资的政策以及促进出口的贸易与汇率政策，并建议改革以实现经济再平衡。
Over the last decade, the internal and external macroeconomic imbalances in China have risen to unprecedented levels. In 2008, China's national savings rate soared to over 53 percent of its GDP, whereas its current account surplus exceeded 9 percent of GDP. This paper presents a unified framework for understanding the structural causes of these imbalances. I argue that the imbalances are attributable to a set of policies and institutions embedded in the economy. I propose a unified framework for understanding the joint causes of the high savings rate and external imbalances in China. My explanations first focus on an array of factors that encouraged saving across the corporate, government, and household sectors, such as policies that affected sectoral income distribution, along with factors like incomplete social welfare reforms, and population control policies. I then turn to policies that limited investment in China, thus preventing the high savings from being used domestically. Finally, I will examine how trade policies, such as export tax rebates, special economic zones, and exchange rate policies, strongly promote exports. Moreover, the accession of China to the World Trade Organization has dramatically amplified the effects of these structural distortions. In conclusion, I recommend some policy reforms for rebalancing the Chinese economy.