Commercial Real Estate Valuation, Development and Occupancy Under Leasing Uncertainty
构建了一个商业地产估值模型，考虑租户随机到达和离开、租金与保留价格随机波动，分析不同市场和经济条件下的物业价值与空置率，并探讨预租对开发风险的规避作用。
A model of commercial property valuation is developed where individual property owners are price takers and tenants randomly arrive and depart. Spot lease and tenant reservation prices are stochastic and correlated and can divert from but eventually revert back to market equilibrium. Within this framework we examine built property values and vacancy rates for varying parameter sets representing differing markets and economic conditions. We also examine how potential and existing vacancies, spot lease prices and tenant reservation prices feed back into development decisions. We demonstrate how preleasing acts as a hedge to the developer against the risk of leasing uncertainty.