Partial equilibrium analysis of vaccination as an avian influenza control tool in the U.S. poultry sector
研究比较了美国禽流感暴发时现行控制策略与补充疫苗接种策略的经济效果，发现疫苗接种的有效性取决于区域禽群密度和决策者的风险规避程度。
Abstract The study addresses the economic effectiveness of vaccination in the case of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks. The effectiveness is evaluated in a U.S. case study comparing the outbreak costs under the currently recommended HPAI control practice versus one which also includes vaccination. An integrated economic‐epidemic partial equilibrium model is used to empirically simulate HPAI outbreaks in three different poultry regions within the State of Texas. The simulation results show that the effectiveness of vaccination depends on flock density in the region and risk aversion preferences of the decision maker. In regions with high flock densities, if the decision maker is less risk averse the currently recommended strategy—which includes depopulation, movement restrictions, and flock testing—is more cost‐effective than the same strategy supplemented with vaccination. Addition of vaccination improves cost effectiveness only if the decision maker is highly risk averse or if surveillance, carcass disposal, and cleaning costs are high. In regions with medium and low flock densities, adding vaccination to the currently recommended strategy is not cost‐effective except in the case of high surveillance, carcass disposal, and cleaning costs.