The Effect of Futures Market Volume on Spot Market Volatility
检验期货市场成交量是否加剧现货市场波动，发现传统GARCH模型可能得出错误结论，而使用随机波动模型后，无信息期货交易对现货波动无显著影响。
There has been considerable interest, both academic and regulatory, in the hypothesis that the higher is the volume in the futures market, the greater is the destabilizing effect on the stock market. We show that conventional approaches, such as adding exogenous variables to GARCH models, may lead to false inferences in tests of this question. Using a stochastic volatility model, we show that, contrary to regulatory concern and the results of other papers, contemporaneous informationless futures market trading has no significant effect on spot market volatility.