Asymmetric Phase Shifts in U.S. Industrial Production Cycles
研究了74个美国制造业的周期转折点，发现行业在扩张和收缩阶段共同波动，低谷比高峰更集中和尖锐，且宏观经济冲击（如货币政策、油价变化）显著驱动行业相位转换。
We identify cyclical turning points for 74 U.S. manufacturing industries and uncover new empirical regularities: (a) industries tend to comove between expansion and contraction phases over the business cycle; (b) clusters of industry turning points are highly asymmetric between peaks and troughs: troughs are much more concentrated and sharper than peaks; (c) the temporal pattern of phase shifts across industries supports the spillovers through input-output linkages; and (d) macroeconomic shocks, such as unanticipated changes in monetary policy, government spending, oil prices, and financial conditions, are significant drivers of industrial phase shifts. © 2015 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology