The Possible Unemployment Cost of Average Inflation below a Credible Target
研究了当平均通胀低于目标时，长期菲利普斯曲线不再垂直，导致失业率上升。以瑞典1997-2011年数据为例，平均通胀低于目标0.6个百分点，使失业率高出约0.8个百分点。
If inflation expectations become firmly anchored at the inflation target even when average inflation deviates from the target, the long-run Phillips curve becomes nonvertical. During 1997–2011, average inflation expectations in Sweden have been close to the inflation target of 2 percent, whereas average inflation has fallen short of the target by 0.6 percentage points. The estimates reported suggest that the slope of the long-run Phillips curve is about 0.75. Then the average unemployment rate has been about 0.8 percentage points higher than if average inflation had been on target. This is a large unemployment cost of undershooting the inflation target.