One Swallow Doesn't Make a Summer: New Evidence on Anchoring Effects
质疑锚定效应在经济学估值中的稳健性，提出一个理论框架解释为何初始实证发现可能不可靠，并强调统计功效、研究先验和独立复制的重要性。
Some researchers have argued that anchoring in economic valuations casts doubt on the assumption of consistent and stable preferences. We present new evidence that explores the strength of certain anchoring results. We then present a theoretical framework that provides insights into why we should be cautious of initial empirical findings in general. The model importantly highlights that the rate of false positives depends not only on the observed significance level, but also on statistical power, research priors, and the number of scholars exploring the question. Importantly, a few independent replications dramatically increase the chances that the original finding is true.