Policy Uncertainty and Household Savings
利用德国微观数据和1998年大选前的政治不确定性上升，研究发现家庭储蓄显著增加，且工人通过兼职调整劳动供给，揭示了政治僵局的经济影响。
Using German microdata and a quasi-natural experiment, we provide evidence on how households respond to an increase in uncertainty. We find that household saving increases significantly following the increase in political uncertainty observed in the run-up to the 1998 German general election. We also find evidence of a labor supply response by workers who can use the margin offered by part-time employment. Our results are suggestive of the economic effects of “wars of attrition”: when political disagreement leads to delays in adopting a reform or the possibility that earlier reforms may be revoked, the increased uncertainty could slow the economy. © 2012 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.