The International Transmission of Arbitrage Information Across Futures Markets
研究股指期货错误定价是否跨越国界传递，发现澳大利亚、英国和美国市场间存在双向关系，并检验了基于此信息的交易策略在扣除成本后的盈利可能性。
Abstract: This paper examines whether deviations from a domestic spot‐futures relation, as identified through mispricing series in stock index futures, spillover international boundaries. Such spillovers suggest that information from a mispricing series in one market conveys a signal of similar mispricing in another market. In the presence of arbitrage traders and in the absence of market frictions, mispricing series should be independent across international boundaries. The study employs a VAR analysis of stock index futures mispricing across three large futures markets – Australia, the UK and the USA. Using time zone differences, tests are conducted for the daily transmission of arbitrage information. The results reveal the relationship between mispricing series is bi‐directional. Based on this finding, a trading strategy is employed to examine the economic significance of apparent profits. The results show that some profits are possible after transaction costs but that a long horizon, probably beyond the scope of most traders, is required to exploit the spillover information.