International Consumption Risk Sharing
用工业化国家面板数据检验国际消费风险分担理论,发现短期国内总消费几乎完全对冲了异质性冲击,但中长期仍与这些变量相关,且理论约束被拒绝。
This paper formally examines the implications of international consumption risk sharing for a panel of industrialized countries. We theoretically derive the international consumption insurance proposition in a simple setup and show how to modify it in more complicated models. We analyze the implications of the theory for pairs of countries and find that aggregate domestic consumption is almost completely insured against idiosyncratic real, demographic, fiscal and monetary shocks over short cycles, but that it covaries with these variables over medium and long cycles. The cross equation restrictions imposed by the theory are rejected. The policy implications are discussed.