Business cycle amplification with heterogeneous expectations
在随机增长模型中用异质性预期替代同质理性预期，发现部分理性预期与部分最优简约预测模型共存能显著增强经济周期的内部传导机制，且传导强度取决于异质性程度。校准后的异质性模型比代表性代理人理性预期模型更贴合实际经济周期数据。
This paper studies the implications for business cycle dynamics of heterogeneous expectations in a stochastic growth model. The assumption of homogeneous, rational expectations is replaced with a heterogeneous expectations model where a fraction of agents hold rational expectations and the remaining fraction adopt parsimonious forecasting models that are, in equilibrium, optimal within a restricted class. Our approach nests the literature on rational expectations in business cycle models with a recent approach based on adaptive learning. We demonstrate that (i.) heterogeneous expectations can lead to substantial improvement in the internal propagation of equilibrium business cycle models and (ii.) the internal propagation depends on the degree of heterogeneity. A calibrated model with heterogeneity provides a closer fit to business cycle data than its representative agent, rational expectations counterpart.