Declining Effects of Oil Price Shocks
研究了美国石油消费结构变化如何导致油价冲击对产出的影响减弱，发现交通行业放松管制、能效提升和油价冲击持续性降低是主要原因，解释了冲击效应减半的现象。
In recent years, output responses to oil price shocks have not only been weaker, but have also reached their trough earlier. This paper builds a model that incorporates a realistic structure of U.S. petroleum consumption and explores three possible explanations for the changes. The possible factors considered are (i) deregulation in the transportation industry, (ii) improved energy efficiency, and (iii) a lower degree of persistence of oil price shocks. Under realistic parameter values, the three factors play an important role quantitatively, accounting for half of the reduction in the largest impact on output of an oil price shock over time.