Disappointment and Dynamic Consistency in Choice under Uncertainty
提出失望理论，认为个体对不确定前景形成预期，实际结果与预期比较产生失望或欣喜情绪，从而修正效用，解释并辩护了传统期望效用公理的诸多违反行为是理性且动态一致的。
The central proposition of disappointment theory is that an individual forms expectations about uncertain prospects, and that if the actual consequence turns out to be worse than (or better than) that expectation, the individual experiences a sensation of disappointment (or elation) generating a decrement (or increment) of utility which modifies the basic utility derived from the consequence. By incorporating a simple disappointment-elation function into a model of individual choice, many observed violations of conventional expected utility axioms—including violations of Savage's sure-thing principle and the "isolation effect"—can be predicted and defended as rational and dynamically consistent behaviour.