The Learning Curve and Optimal Production under Uncertainty
研究竞争性企业在价格随机波动时，如何根据学习曲线（成本随累计产量下降）制定最优生产决策，发现不确定性会降低累计产量的影子价值，从而提高企业开始生产的临界价格。
This paper examines the implications of the learning curve in a world of uncertainty. We consider a competitive firm whose costs decline with cumulative output. Because the price of the firm's output evolves stochastically, future production and cumulative output are unknown, and are contingent on future prices and costs. We derive an optimal decision rule that maximizes the firm's market value: produce when price exceeds a critical level, which is a declining function of cumulative output. We show how the shadow value of cumulative production, as well as the total value of the firm, depend on the volatility of price and other parameters. Over the relevant range of prices, uncertainty reduces the shadow value of cumulative production, and therefore increases the critical price required for the firm to begin producing.