The Impact of Conditional Cash Transfers on Consumption and Investment in Nicaragua
利用随机实验评估尼加拉瓜有条件现金转移项目对家庭支出和生产性投资的影响，发现项目显著增加了当前消费，但对农业和非农业投资几乎没有影响。
Abstract This article examines the impact of a Nicaraguan conditional cash transfer programme on measures of expenditures and productive investment. Despite clear evidence from a randomised evaluation that the programme increased current expenditures, there is little evidence that it increased agricultural or non-agricultural investment. An estimated marginal propensity to consume out of the transfers of nearly one, combined with no effect of cumulative past transfers on current consumption, corroborate the direct evidence on investment. In contrast to gains made in human capital investment, the potential for long term increases in consumption as a result of other forms of increased investment may be limited.