Disinflation Shocks in the Eurozone: A DSGE Perspective
利用欧元区数据和结构向量自回归识别通缩冲击，发现其导致持续衰退，并通过DSGE模型分析发现名义和实际摩擦及货币政策渐进主义是衰退主因，不完全可信度解释力有限。
We investigate the effects of disinflation policies on key macroeconomic variables. Using euro area data and structural vector autoregressions (SVARs), we identify disinflation shocks as the only shocks that drive nominal variables to a lower long‐run level. We find that in the immediate aftermath of a disinflation shock, the euro area enters in a persistent recession. We use these dynamic responses to estimate a DSGE model with imperfect information about the disinflation shock. We find that both nominal and real frictions and monetary policy gradualism have played a prominent role in the recessionary effect of disinflation shocks. Conversely, allowing for imperfect credibility does not yield a better fit, except when we shut key model's frictions down.