Inflation and Uncertainty: Tests for Temporal Ordering
针对战后美国数据，发现通胀率上升往往先于通胀不确定性上升，表明更高的通胀不确定性是通胀福利成本的一部分。
For the postwar United States, increases in the rate of inflation tend to precede increases in the level of inflation uncertainty. The finding suggests that higher inflation uncertainty is part of the welfare cost of inflation. Possible explanations are (1) a high rate of inflation increases uncertainty about future monetary policy and (2) there is uncertainty about the persistence of inflation. Copyright 1995 by Ohio State University Press.