Asymmetries in the Cyclical Behaviour of UK Labour Markets
研究英国劳动力市场中商业周期、非线性和非对称性的关系，发现就业、失业、实际工资等变量的随机性质关键取决于周期状态，且基于周期状态的条件模型优于线性和多种非线性时间序列模型。
This paper examines the connection between the business cycle, non-linearities and asymmetries in the UK labour market. The economy is shown to display cyclical asymmetries; stochastic properties of variables such as employment, unemployment, real wages and the unemployment-vacancy ratio crucially depend upon the state of the business cycle. We show that in most cases conditioning on the state of the cycle removes residual non-linearities and is more successful than the linear and a number of non-linear time-series models. The robustness of our findings is confirmed using a variety of diagnostics and alternative measures of the cycle.