Modeling Housing Market Fundamentals: Empirical Evidence of Extreme Market Conditions
研究了极端价格行为下住房市场基本面的建模问题，以爱尔兰住宅市场为例，比较了传统模型与误差修正模型的效果，发现1990年代末市场出现显著溢价，但近年价格已回归基本面。
This article examines the issues encountered in the modeling of market fundamentals during a period of extreme price behavior. The study analyzes the price behavior of the residential property market in Ireland using a number of alternative methodological approaches in the estimation of fundamental market value. Limitations in conventional models such as an inverted demand model are highlighted, in particular, with regard to diagnostic concerns and the static nature of the model. The use of an error correction framework provides more consistent and robust findings. The analysis does appear to indicate that a substantial premium over fundamental values developed in the Irish market during the late 1990s, reaching a peak in 1999 and 2000. However, in recent years, prices have largely been in line with fundamentals.