An Axiomatic Model of Non-Bayesian Updating
构建了一个三期模型，描述一个不按贝叶斯规则更新信念、但能自我意识到自身更新行为的代理人，并给出了一个推广Anscombe-Aumann定理的表征结果，使先验和更新方式都成为主观的，能容纳心理学观察到的更新偏差。
This paper models an agent in a three-period setting who does not update according to Bayes' Rule and who is self-aware and anticipates her updating behaviour when formulating plans. Gul and Pesendorfer's theory of temptation and self-control is a key building block. The main result is a representation theorem that generalizes (the dynamic version of) Anscombe-Aumann's theorem so that both the prior and the way in which it is updated are subjective. The model can accommodate updating biases analogous to those observed by psychologists. Copyright 2006, Wiley-Blackwell.