Speculative Carryover: An Empirical Examination of the U.S. Refined Copper Market
构建并估计了一个均衡库存模型，结合理性预期理论与现代投资组合理论，应用于美国精炼铜市场，估计了结构性供需、理性价格预测及库存风险。
This article develops and estimates an empirically tractable model of equilibrium storage. The method bridges the gap between theoretical rational expectations models and applied commodity market work. The application to the U.S. refined copper market provides estimates of structural supply and demand, rational price forecasts, and the risk of copper storage that is consistent with modern portfolio theory.