Bayes Rule as a Descriptive Model: The Representativeness Heuristic
检验了心理学家的主张，即预期效用理论不是好的描述性模型，发现人们在更新信念时忽略先验信息，违背贝叶斯法则；实验证实该预测对无经验或无财务激励的受试者成立。
Results of experiments designed to test the claim of psychologists that expected utility theory does not provide a good descriptive model are reported. The deviation from tested theory is that, in revising beliefs, individuals ignore prior or base-rate information contrary to Bayes rule. Flaws in the evidence in the psychological literature are noted, an experiment avoiding these difficulties is designed and carried out, and the psychologists' predictions are stated in terms of a more general model. The psychologists' predictions are confirmed for inexperienced or financially unmotivated subjects, but for others the evidence is less clear.