High pressure and black clouds: Keynes and the frequentist theory of probability
论证凯恩斯在《概率论》中反对约翰·维恩系统化的频率主义概率论，该理论否认概率在决策理论中的作用，凯恩斯则寻求一种可作为生活指南的概率概念，并以高气压乌云下是否带伞为例说明。
The thesis of this paper is that Keynes wrote A Treatise on Probability in opposition to the frequentist theory of probability, systematised by John Venn, which denied any role for probability in decision theory. Keynes was interested in finding an alternative conception of probability that could be utilised as a guide of life. To analyse this point, the paper considers Keynes's criticisms of frequentist tradition in the two versions of his Fellowship dissertation, and in the published edition of his Treatise. Keynes's project is then illustrated with the famous example of whether or not to go out with one's umbrella in the situation in which the pressure is high and the clouds are black. Copyright 2004, Oxford University Press.