Net Migration and State Labor Market Dynamics
发现现有净迁移模型因缺乏对未来条件的预期度量而识别不足，使用实际一期后净迁移数据控制预期后，当前工资与净迁移的关系强度降低三分之一以上，并以密歇根州为例说明模型对预期暂时性冲击的反应误判。
Existing empirical estimates of net migration models are not identified because they lack an explicit measure of expected future conditions. I find that using actual one-period-ahead net migration at the state level to control for expectations reduces the strength of the relationship between current wages and net migration by more than one-third. I use the case of Michigan to show how existing empirical models mischaracterize the response of migration to shocks that are expected to be transitory. I add migration to a labor market model and simulate responses to permanent and transitory demand shocks.