Union Contracts and Life Cycle - Permanent Income Hypothesis
利用PSID数据匹配工会合同，构建家庭预期工资增长指标，发现可预测的工资变动与消费变化显著相关，且消费对收入下降的反应强于上升，支持损失厌恶模型。
This paper isolates households in the PSID whose heads can be matched to particular long-term union contracts with high confidence. The author uses use published information on these contracts to construct a household-specific measure of expected wage growth. He finds that predictable wage movements are significantly correlated with consumption changes, contrary to neoclassical consumption theory. The author finds that consumption responds more strongly to predictable income declines than to predictable income increases. This asymmetry is inconsistent with liquidity constraints and myopia but is qualitatively consistent with models in which preferences exhibit loss aversion. Copyright 1995 by American Economic Association.