Heterogenous Expectations and Farmland Prices
研究潜在农田买家对未来异质预期的影响，提出卖方最优保留价格公式，并用1968-81年玉米带和湖区数据初步检验乐观者对土地价格的作用。
Abstract This paper examines the effect of heterogenous expectations about the future among potential farmland buyers. It is optimal for each seller to have a reservation price in excess of the value he attaches to the future stream of income attributable to owning the land if he thinks that some potential buyers may be more optimistic than he. A formula for the optimal reservation price is presented, and a numerical illustration is shown. An extremely preliminary empirical test using Corn Belt and Lake State data is made of the importance of optimists in determining land prices for 1968–81.