Monetarism and the Aggregate Economy: Some Longer-Run Evidence
用简单宏观模型检验1923-82年间的货币主义命题，发现1961-82年数据支持货币主义，但长期中性主要由政府政策驱动，而非经济内在属性；1923-60年数据则不支持。
A simple macro model is used to investigate various monetarist propositions over the period 1923-82. Initial tests indicate a structural break over this period and the subperiods 1923-60 and 1961-82 are analyzed separately. Results obtained for the latter period support the monetarist propositions put forward by Stein and others. However, upon closer investigation it appears that the crucial long-run neutrality that characterizes these findings is essentially generated by government policy and is not necessarily an intrinsic property of the economy over that period. By contrast, results obtained for the period 1923-60 are much less supportive of these same propositions.