Dynamics of Household Driving Demand
构建了一个嵌套Koyck分布滞后模型及其四种替代形式的统计模型，利用1973-1978年收入动态面板数据检验家庭汽车出行需求。研究发现，对于在此期间搬家的家庭，价格和收入效应在两年内自由变化后呈几何衰减，收入影响在变化后一年最大，价格初期抑制里程但第三年有强正向效应，可能与购置更省油车辆有关。
A bstract-A statistical model of household automotive transportation demand is developed which nests the Koyck distributed lag model and four alternatives as special cases. These various specifications are tested with data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. For households who changed residence during the observation period 1973-1978, the Koyck model is rejected in favor of a model which allows price and income effects to vary freely for two years prior to settling into a geometric declining pattern. The maximum single year income impact, for these households, is in the year following the income change. Prices appear to have an initial negative impact on miles driven followed by a strong positive impact in the third year. This latter effect may be related to the acquisition of a more fuel efficient vehicle stock.