Is the Phillips Curve Alive and Well after All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation
研究解释了大衰退期间通货紧缩为何没有出现，提出企业通胀预期与家庭趋同导致预期上升，从而抵消了通缩压力，对理解通胀动态和政策制定有参考价值。
We evaluate explanations for the absence of disinflation during the Great Recession and find popular explanations to be insufficient. We propose a new explanation for this puzzle within the context of a standard Phillips curve. If firms' inflation expectations track those of households, then the missing disinflation can be explained by the rise in their inflation expectations between 2009 and 2011. We present new econometric and survey evidence consistent with firms having similar expectations as households. The rise in household inflation expectations from 2009 to 2011 can be explained by the increase in oil prices over this time period.