International coordination of agricultural policy adjustments
分析农业生产力快速增长与需求停滞导致的产能过剩,提出国际协调农业政策的必要性,并探讨各国在贸易谈判中的议价地位,结论是现有保护率存在冗余,多国共同改革可降低政治难度。
The need for international coordination of agricultural policies in order to reduce the excess production capacity resulting from the rapid growth of agricultural productivity and a stagnating demand for agricultural products is addressed in this article. A simple conceptual framework is introduced based on the realistic assumption that aggregate world production and consumption would not change significantly if agricultural trade were liberalized. If this is true any country's protection can only be successful in attracting a larger share of global demand to the extent that it exceeds other protectionist countries' efforts. Within this framework the bargaining positions of various categories of countries in international trade negotiations are analysed in relation to their rates of protection and of self-sufficiency. The main conclusions are that there is some redundancy in the existing rates of protection, that if all (or a large number) of countries engage in agricultural policy reform the political difficulties for each of them are significantly smaller, and that restoring a functioning international trading order in agriculture is an international public good-that can only be provided through international coordination.